Market news · Nov 9, 4:01 PM ET

Tuesday's October CPI arrives without an annual inflation rate as December Fed hike odds top 65%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October consumer prices on Tuesday, November 10, but the annual figures will be missing because of the 2025 government shutdown. Markets have pushed the odds of a December Fed rate hike above 65%, so the report matters for US stocks that rely on rate expectations, and it is the test for the rally's wider reach beyond Big Tech.

By Flash Finance US desk (written with AI assistance) · Editor: Kokila

The October consumer price index is the main economic release of the week, and it lands as investors try to judge whether the stock market's recent gains can extend beyond the largest technology names. The stakes are mostly about interest rates, since the data will shape how traders price the Federal Reserve's next move.

What the release will and will not show

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, November 10. This month's version looks different from usual. The missing data stems from the 2025 government shutdown, which prevented BLS from collecting portions of price data for October 2025. As a result, the agency will release the report without the standard 12-month percentage change figures. Real earnings growth from a year earlier, a separate but related release, will also be unavailable. The monthly comparisons will still be published.

For context, Tuesday's report will lack an official year-over-year headline inflation rate to compare against September's 3.7% annual reading.

What economists expect

Economists expect the CPI rose 0.3% in October from the previous month, while core CPI increased 0.2%. Core inflation strips out food and energy prices. The Cleveland Fed's nowcasting model is slightly lower, estimating a 0.24% monthly headline increase.

Some forecasters expect cooling in part because of energy. Continuum Economics' Dave Sloan wrote that "We expect more subdued CPI in October after two straight disappointing 0.3% gains in the core rate." Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote that inflation on many goods likely eased last month as tariff pressures faded, while services inflation is likely sticky due to factors like rising airfare prices.

Why rate expectations matter for stocks

The labor data has shifted the rate outlook. The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.1%. TipRanks reported that strong jobs data boosted December Fed rate hike odds past 65%.

Natixis chief economist Christopher Hodge said an in-line report would be welcomed by a Fed that has turned more hawkish, but that it will not prevent another rate hike in 2026 if the central bank believes this is necessary. Hodge's comment, in his own words, was "we think another hike will be warranted in December."

Traders have been weighing that possibility against recent equity weakness. TheStreet reported that the S&P 500 had its worst week since April 2025 in the prior week, and that the Dow settled at 51285.73, down 0.94% for the week.

Fed speakers and the calendar

The release is one of several events. Fed speakers are on the calendar through the week. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks Monday, Tuesday and Friday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2027 voter) Monday and Thursday, and Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 voter) Monday. Other officials, including Governor Waller, Dallas Fed President Logan (2026 voter), Kansas City Fed President Schmid (2028 voter) and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (2026 voter), are also scheduled. Producer prices follow on Friday.

The December meeting is set for December 8–9, and the October CPI is the last inflation reading before it. Investors will be watching whether core inflation holds at or below expectations, because a firmer reading could strengthen hike bets and weigh on rate-sensitive growth shares. The report does not name any specific company, so the immediate effect on individual stocks is not yet known.

CPIFederal ReserveBureau of Labor StatisticsS&P 500Treasury yieldsinflation

Sources

Written with AI assistance on Nov 9, 4:01 PM ET from the reports listed under Sources, and reviewed by our editor after publication. Before it was published, every figure was checked against those reports, and passages with figures that could not be found there were left out. It can still contain mistakes: read the sources before acting on anything. How we review. Not investment advice.