Recession tracker

Are we in a recession?

Most indicators look clear. Each indicator below is scored by a simple, stated rule of thumb from the latest official data; select one for its history.

0/8

signals · 0 on watch

Clear Sahm rule-0.00 ppOct 2026 The 3-month average unemployment rate is -0.00 percentage points above its low of the past year (unemployment 4.1%).Rule: Signal at 0.50 or more; watch from 0.30. Clear Yield curve (10y − 2y)+0.35 ppNov 6, 2026 Positive since Sep 6, 2024. Inversions have preceded every recession since the 1970s, with long and variable lags.Rule: Signal when inverted; watch for two years after it turns positive again. Clear Recession probability model0.4%Sep 2026 Chauvet-Piger smoothed probability that the economy is in recession, from payrolls, industrial production, income and sales.Rule: Signal at 50% or more; watch from 20%. Clear Real GDP growth+3.4%Q3 2026 Annualized quarterly growth; the quarter before was +2.2%.Rule: Signal after two straight quarters of decline; watch after one. Clear Payroll jobs (3-month average)+137K a monthOct 2026 Employers added 165K jobs in the latest month.Rule: Signal when jobs are being lost; watch below +50K a month. Clear Initial jobless claims194,750Oct 31, 2026 4-week average, -14% from a year earlier.Rule: Signal when 25%+ above a year earlier; watch from 10%. Clear High-yield bond spread3.48%Nov 5, 2026 Extra yield investors demand on junk bonds over Treasuries — it widens when default fears rise.Rule: Signal at 6 points or more; watch from 4.5. Clear S&P 500 from its record-5.7%Nov 6, 2026 Stocks usually fall ahead of and during recessions, but many bear markets happened without one.Rule: Signal in a bear market (−20%); watch in a correction (−10%).

Frequently asked questions

Are we in a recession right now?

Most indicators look clear: 0 of 8 indicators on this page show a recession signal and 0 are on watch. Recessions are officially dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee, usually many months after they begin, so no single indicator settles the question.

What is the Sahm rule?

Economist Claudia Sahm's rule says a recession has likely begun when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest three-month average of the previous 12 months. It has flagged every US recession since 1970 early in the downturn.

Does an inverted yield curve mean a recession is coming?

An inverted curve — short-term Treasury yields above long-term ones — has preceded every US recession since the 1970s, but the lag has ranged from several months to about two years, and the 2022-24 inversion was the longest on record.

Data: FRED (BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve, ICE, Chauvet-Piger) and S&P 500 closes. The thresholds are common rules of thumb, not forecasts; official recession dates come from the NBER. US economy dashboard → Not investment advice.