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Growth & activity

US Recession Probability

The smoothed US recession probability was 0.4% in September 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from 0.2% in August 2026. A year earlier (Sep 2025), the reading was 0.6%.

0.4%
+0.2 pp vs prior month
September 2026 · Monthly data
Previous0.2%Aug 2026
A year earlier0.6%Sep 2025 · -0.2 pp
1-year high0.6%Oct 2025
1-year low0.1%Dec 2025
5-year high2.6%Jan 2024
5-year low0.1%Oct 2021

Recession Probability: chart

Recession Probability, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026Line chart from Oct 1, 2025 to Sep 1, 2026. Latest 0.4%; high 0.6% on Oct 1, 2025; low 0.1% on Dec 1, 2025.0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%Jan '26Apr '26Jul '260.4%High 0.6%Low 0.1%
Recession Probability, Oct 2021 to Sep 2026Line chart from Oct 1, 2021 to Sep 1, 2026. Latest 0.4%; high 2.6% on Jan 1, 2024; low 0.1% on Oct 1, 2021.0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%202220232024202520260.4%High 2.6%Low 0.1%
Recession Probability, Oct 2016 to Sep 2026Line chart from Oct 1, 2016 to Sep 1, 2026. Latest 0.4%; high 100.0% on Mar 1, 2020; low 0.0% on Apr 1, 2017.0%20%40%60%80%100%201820202022202420260.4%High 100.0%Low 0.0%

Smoothed probability (%) that the US economy is in recession, monthly.

Latest readings

Monthly data
MonthProbabilityChange (pp)
Sep 20260.4%+0.2
Aug 20260.2%+0.1
Jul 20260.1%0.0
Jun 20260.1%0.0
May 20260.1%0.0
Apr 20260.1%0.0
Mar 20260.1%0.0
Feb 20260.1%0.0
Jan 20260.1%0.0
Dec 20250.1%-0.2
Nov 20250.3%-0.3
Oct 20250.6%0.0
Sep 20250.6%+0.1
Aug 20250.5%+0.3
Jul 20250.2%0.0
Jun 20250.2%-0.1
May 20250.3%+0.1
Apr 20250.2%+0.1
Mar 20250.1%0.0
Feb 20250.1%-0.4
Jan 20250.5%+0.4
Dec 20240.1%-0.1
Nov 20240.2%-0.2
Oct 20240.4%0.0

pp = percentage points.

Related indicators

All US economy indicators →
Yield curve (10y-2y)Not inverted
+0.35%
-0.03 pp vs prior day
Nov 6, 2026 · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Unemployment rate
4.1%
-0.1 pp vs prior month
Oct 2026 · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Initial jobless claims
189,000
-6,000 (-3.1%) vs prior week
Oct 31, 2026 · U.S. Department of Labor
GDP growth
3.4%
+1.2 pp vs prior quarter
Q3 2026 · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
High-yield spread
3.48%
+0.16 pp vs prior day
Nov 5, 2026 · ICE Data Indices

Frequently asked questions

Is the US in a recession right now?

The smoothed US recession probability was 0.4% in September 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from 0.2% in August 2026. A year earlier (Sep 2025), the reading was 0.6%.

Is this a forecast of a future recession?

No. It estimates whether the economy was in recession in the month shown, based on data already published. For forward-looking signals, investors also watch the yield curve, jobless claims and credit spreads.

Who decides when a US recession starts and ends?

The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. It defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months, and it usually announces turning points well after they happen.

Source: Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (series RECPROUSM156N). Data checked Nov 6, 5:40 PM ET. Not investment advice.