Is the Yield Curve Inverted? 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Spread

The 10-year Treasury yield was 0.35 percentage points above the 2-year yield on Nov 6, 2026. The yield curve is not inverted. The spread has been positive or zero since Sep 6, 2024. On Nov 5, 2026, the 10-year yield was 4.84% and the 2-year yield 4.46%. A year earlier (Nov 6, 2025), the reading was +0.54%.

It means short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term ones. Investors accept less to lend for ten years than for two because they expect interest rates — and usually growth and inflation — to be lower in the future.

It has been one of the more reliable warning signs: inversions of this spread came before each US recession of the past several decades. But the lag has ranged from months to years, the curve has often turned positive again before the downturn actually began, and an inversion is a warning, not a guarantee.

It compares a yield driven mainly by expected Fed policy (two years) with one that also reflects long-run growth and inflation (ten years), and it has a long daily history. Economists also follow the 10-year minus 3-month spread, which the New York Fed uses in its recession-probability model.